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Mynet recently changed the special summons from 5% to 3%.  What does that mean for us?

One of my alliance mates and I have been working on monte carlo simulator for VC summons.  You can find the source code on github here.  (Note: if you compile and run, the source currently has special summon still at 5%.  Adjust it yousrelf if you want to run it for 3%.)  It contains the known regular VC summons.  The calculator was not being with user friendliness in mind, so you may see some oddities. 


Assumptions

The simulator takes a number of assumptions, some of them maybe wrong but I want to get them out there so we know what we're working with.  You can adjust the assumptions yourself before running the monte carlo.

1) VC UR rate is 1%

2) There is a 'rate up' in place for UR cards featured by the summon.  If you would draw a UR, the featured UR has a 50% chance of being the drawn card, and a 50% chance of it being any other card in the pool.  

These two assumptions are based upon my past experiences and represent a best guess to the underlying fundamentals of the game.  


Parameters

100,000 runs per simulation

'Success' is defined as 2 copies of the UR (for H or GUR).


4 different simluations were run:

1) 5% - run till success, unlimited jewels

2) 3% - run till success, unlimited jewels

3) 5% - run till success, 30,000 jewel budget

4) 3% - run till success, 30,000 jewel budget

The first two simulations were run just to get a feel for the distribution.  The last two are a more realistic human-likely scenario that represents a specific budget commitment and seeks to look at the the risk.  

As you can see from the simulations, average price increased 4704.18 jewels, the median price increased 3000 jewels.  This doesn't seem too bad on average, but because we're looking at probabilities, we also have to potential risk at any given level of jewel budget.  You'll notice the amount of jewels necessary to hit 68%, 95%, and 99.7% of obtaining 2 copies successfully goes up significantly, far more than the average cost.  If you are unlucky, you will be paying that price.  

An easier way to digest this all (and a more human relatable one) is if we determine what our budget is first, and then see what our risk of failure is.  I selected a 30000 jewel budget for this exercise, and this is what the last 2 simluations attempt to illustrate.  

The easy summary is on a 30,000 jewel budget, there is a roughly 18% chance of failing to get 2 UR copies at 5%, but a 30% chance of failure at 3%.  This represents a substaintal increase in risk for this example budget.  


I've attempted to quantify a bit here (though probably not very well) the price increase mynet has imposed upon people who are looking to the special summon.  On average it's not terrible, a 4704 increase is roughly $40 for those who buy the biggest jewel packages, a roughly 20% increase over the old average price.  However, if you are on a budget and not just pulling at any cost, this adds significant risk of failure at levels that I would before have considered reasonable.  

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